Mid-Week Snow Storm
An active February pattern looks to continue this week with several more snow threats. The first one will arrive Wednesday into Wednesday Night as a low pressure takes a fairly classic Northeast storm track from the Gulf States, before strengthening off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. However, unlike the last event from this weekend, snow totals will be measured in inches and not feet. Let’s examine the overall set-up for this mid-week (and early Valentine’s Day storm).
While we have been watching this threat for several days, there is finally good agreement on timing and track between all models. A widespread snowfall is expected with this storm, but mixing with rain is likely south and east of the I-95 corridor with fairly warm temperatures near the surface. So, unfortunately for you snow-lovers in the Washington D.C. and Atlantic City, NJ areas, rain will limit potential accumulations. Further north and west; however, will be fair game for a 2 – 4” to 3 – 6” snowfall. It appears that areas along the Mason-Dixon line, into Southeast PA and Northern NJ could be the big winner with this one, but it is still too far out to make definitive claims. This may extend into parts of Southern New England as well; an area that certainly does not need any more of that white stuff for quite some time.
Above is a comparison from the two American models, the GFS and NAM. Both show a similar track, however the NAM has more moisture to work with, resulting in some higher snowfall totals. For reference, in Philadelphia, PA, the GFS currently outputs 0.6” and the NAM 5.9”. In Allentown, PA the GFS has 2.8” and the NAM 5.5”. In Hartford, CT, the GFS has 1.1” and the NAM 7.0”. We have a feeling most final totals will fall in between. As one final note, it is interesting to see that previous analogs (or similar storms from the past) have been showing this I-95 storm for quite some time. One analog in particular, from January 8th, 1990 was very similar to this upcoming event. Below are some totals from that storm: