In weather, each storm that occurs is going to be inherently different from another of a similar magnitude. This, ultimately, cannot be avoided; there will be subtle differences between even the most remarkably similar storms. However, a significant part of weather prediction involves learning from the past in order to forecast the future. The Blizzard of 1996 is widely remembered across the community as one of the most impressive winter storms to strike the northeastern United States… and the recent Blizzard of 2016 shares some similarities with the historic '96 storm. In fact, even before the storm, analogs suggested there would be likenesses between them. They turned out to be on the right track.
The Blizzards of 1996 and 2016 share quite a few similarities in their development and outcome. The overall pattern leading to the development of both storms were both “textbook” in nature: a large ridge across the western U.S., an amplifying trough across the central U.S., and an area of “confluent flow” (winds coming together over an area) over the northeastern U.S.
At a layer of the atmosphere around 4,500 feet in the air, winds were northwesterly, ushering in colder air. And at the surface, a strong area of high pressure developed over southeastern Canada, also bringing cold air down into the East Coast. One saying in the field goes so far as to say: “predict the high, predict the storm”. These are all typical features that forecasters look for if a storm is going to bring heavy snow to the Northeast.
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Additionally, both systems featured a developing area of low pressure from the Gulf of Mexico that slid near the Atlantic coast before giving way to another rapidly deepening low off the coast. Going even further, during the storm, both systems also featured a narrow layer of warm air that pushed in aloft during the storm; this changed some areas in the coastal mid-Atlantic over to sleet for a time.
Some differences did make themselves apparent, however. A strong low-level jet (high winds at a low level of the atmosphere) was partially responsible for developing the widespread, very heavy snow rates (2-5” per hour at times) that were seen in New York, northern New Jersey, and across portions of eastern Pennsylvania for the ’16 storm. In ’96, there was a low-level jet, but it was not nearly as strong. As a result, snowfall rates were not quite as high (only 1-2” per hour).
Perhaps the most striking similarities are those viewed both from data and space. Satellite images confirm that both storms featured a very sharp cutoff in snowfall on their northern and southern perimeters; with the northern side a bit sharper in 2016 than 1996. Snowfall totals in the northeast were comparable as well, with many places challenging or setting record single and multi-day snowfalls.
All in all, those in some of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states have just lived through one of the most historic and memorable snow storms of our lifetimes. In some locations, the only storm left to conquer on the record list was the ’96 Blizzard. Despite recent advances in weather forecasting over the last 20 years since the ’96 storm, there were still questions and late adjustments. However, one of the more striking differences between the two storms was just how much warning many across the mid-Atlantic had about the storm, as word spread around 7 days (if not more) in advance. As with the Blizzard of 1996, the Blizzard of 2016 will be a storm many will talk about for years to come – and one that will see comparisons in the future as well.
