Now that we’ve entered early October, the autumn season is in full swing. With many locations seeing those red and golden hues gracing the trees, it’s time to talk a bit about fall foliage and what to expect for this season. Let’s jump into it!
Across the Northeast, many areas across New York, Vermont, Northern New Hampshire, and Northern Maine are starting to reach peak color. Even some spots have already past their peak as well.
Heading into the Mid-Atlantic, color is slowing getting it's act together, though a majority of the area is still greened up. We do have some moderate to high color along the Appalachians, even some Peak color flaring up in the elevated areas around West Virginia and Maryland.
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In the Midwest, high to peak color is appearing in far northern areas of North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The rest of the area is starting to see some color, but it has been relatively tame so far.
Courtesy of The Foliage Report (https://thefoliagereport.com/)
Now that we've looked at what we're dealing with so far, what can we expect for the rest of this year in terms of the foliage outlook? Well first, we need to discuss what goes into creating those vibrant colors that we look forward to every fall. The "best-case" ingredients for the most vibrant colors in leaves includes a wetter growing season (April - June) followed by an "average" summer season in terms of rainfall and temperature.
So here is a look at how the past several months have played out and what that means for our foliage season this year, starting with the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Courtesy of the Northeast Regional Climate Center (NRCC)
This past spring, much of the Northeast saw a "normal" amount of rainfall with some fluctuation occuring above and below average during the season. Moving south into the Mid-Atlantic, it was a much drier than normal season for much of the region. Both the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast saw above average temperatures as well. 
Courtesy of the Northeast Regional Climate Center (NRCC)
A similar story exists out in the Midwest as well regarding precipitation during the growing season, with much of the region seeing near to normal rainfall for April - June. A few places, namely near the Iowa/Minnesota state line, saw well above normal precipitation during the growing season. That being said, temperatures also were above normal throughout the spring in the Midwest. This is especially the case across the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley area, where temperatures were 3 - 5+ degrees above normal for the growing season.
As we moved into the summer, precipitation across the Midwest remained largely normal outside of the Ohio Valley, which began to see drought conditions. This was mirrored in temperature departures as well, with the Midwest seeing largely normal temperatures through the summer except in the Ohio Valley, where temperatures rose above normal. Mostly normal precipitation was seen across the Northeast as well, though some locations in northern New York and interior parts of New England saw above average rainfall. Below average rainfall remained in place across the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic were solidly above average throughout the summer season.
Courtesy of the Northeast Regional Climate Center (NRCC)
Finally, as we pushed through to September, near to or below average precipitation was observed for the month across the Northeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures as a whole across this region were near to or above average, especially in the interior elevations. Temperatures also remained above average across much of the Midwest, with rainfall remaining below average.
So where does that leave us for the autumn foliage? Well, for many across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, warm summer-time temperatures combined with "normal" or near to normal precipitation throughout the summer months has allowed for us to stick to near-normal timing for peak foliage colors. You can take a look at check out typical timing across the northeast in the graphic above.
In addition to the timeline for peak color being near normal, colors will likely be quite vibrant, particularly across the Northeast, thanks to rainfall being close to normal. An excess amount of rainfall would pose a fungus risk to trees, causing leaves to be more "dull". On the flipside, below normal rain causes trees to be drained of their moisture and thus, allows the leaves to dry out quicker. This leads to color change happening early and leaves falling easier. For more details on how this all works, check out the latest episode of our podcast, 'The Weather Lounge'. We chatted with the founder of The Foliage Report, Kyle Cotner, who talked all about the science behind leaf changes.
For many of us in the Northeast, we're right in that ideal condition range for great color changes. For the Midwest, these optimal conditions in the summer and further into September were a little less so, especially across the Ohio Valley, where dry conditions may allow leaf colors to change and fall earlier as a result. Regardless of what the exact forecast is, fall foliage is always a beautiful site across the county. Here is a map of when we can usually see peak fall colors in the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic. Make sure to take some time to walk around outdoors this fall season and enjoy the beautiful scenery. Happy Autumn!
