The weather is always changing and that's what makes weather forecasting so challenging. Last Thursday and Friday, most forecast guidance was converging on a wet stretch of weather for this week here in the Northeast. However, a lot changed over the weekend and now it looks as though the new work week will be mainly dry. We'll talk about why, in just a minute. First, let's take a look at the difference in this week's forecast rainfall. The first map is from last Friday. The second map is from today. The difference is quite easy to see.
Previous Forecast Rainfall Through This Friday - Courtesy Pivotal Weather
Current Forecast Rainfall Through Friday Afternoon - Courtesy Pivotal Weather
So, why the big change. Well, the main reason is that high pressure located over eastern Canada ended up being much stronger and further south than originally expected. This resulted in the upper level low (the one that was supposed to be over the Northeast) being "deflected" further south and west. In other words, the rain and unsettled weather will now be confined to the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains. Also, there was a chance that moisture from Tropical Storm Arthur could make it into the area (as of late last week), but the current forecast now takes the storm out to sea.
So, that means we can focus on nice weather this week along the I-95 corridor. Still some uncertainties as to where the upper level low goes later this week. It may make a run for the Northeast, but at the same time, it will be weakening. Meanwhile, since our rain chances will be rather low over the next few days, we'll see a mix of sun and clouds along with seasonable temperatures. Thursday will likely be the warmest afternoon of the week. Here is a look at forecast 2 PM temperatures.
Courtesy Pivotal Weather
There is a chance that Friday afternoon is even warmer in New England. This will be dependant upon how much cloud cover moves in during the day, but wouldn't be surprised if parts of Connecticut and Massachusetts get well into the 70s Friday afternoon.
That's it for now. Enjoy the dry weather this week and of course we'll be focusing on the Memorial Day Weekend weather. In fact, we'll have a team Weatherworks video forecast on Thursday. See ya then !!