Ask, and you shall receive....Some much needed rain is in the forecast for areas that could certainly use it. The question is, could we see too much of a good thing? It has been a dry and hot summer for many, especially those of us along the I-95 corridor from Boston to Washington, DC. However, over the next few days, the weather pattern looks to favor an extended period of wet weather. So, here's the set-up. A cold front will sweep through the mid-Atlantic and New England with some periods of rain and even a few rumbles of thunder tonight and early tomorrow. The front is then expected to stall right along the East Coast. At the same time, an upper level low will sink south over the Appalachians. This will help drive several disturbances up along the front through the end of the week and possibly into the weekend. This means several days of clouds, showers, and times of steadier rain, some of which could be heavy at times. Pictured below is the 500 mb forecast (~18,000 feet) for Friday morning. This is what is known as an upper level low (ULL). The forecast position of this ULL would allow for deep moisture to flow over the mid-Atlantic and into southern New England.
500 mb map on Friday morning, courtesy Tropical Tidbits - Levi Cowan
GFS model total precipitation through Saturday morning, courtesy Tropical Tidbits - Levi Cowan
Pictured above is the GFS (American Weather Model) total rainfall forecast through Saturday morning. Notice the widespread 1-2 inch amounts of rain from Richmond, VA up I-95, through New York City and into Boston, MA. There may be some higher amounts as shown by the legend to the right. Areas in NJ and eastern PA could see 3-4 inches of rain if this forecast verifies. This could lead to some localized flooding, especially if the rain falls in a short period of time. We will of course monitor it closely here at WeatherWorks. If you are not a client, follow along on Facebook or Twitter for more information.
