As we head into the middle of July, many are noticing the grass turning brown across much of the Northeastern US. Even though we have had rainfall from scattered thunderstorms, the lack of significant, widespread rainfall has triggered abnormally dry conditions, with even patches of moderate to severe drought developing across northern NJ, CT, MA, and NH. While the drought is nothing overly concerning right now, long range specialist Brian Marmo’s summer forecast calls for a drier than normal July and August. When you consider that July and August are climatologically the hottest months of the year, it causes concern the existing drought will worsen and spread. The map below shows the current drought situation (as of July 5th) compared to the first week in April for the Northeastern US. You can easily see the drought expanding and worsening over the past three months.
The last week in June featured scattered showers and thunderstorms for much of the East Coast. However, these showers and storms have not produced widespread rainfall. A few locations received 1 – 3” plus from this event, but as the map below shows, most areas got less than 0.50”. Typical showers and thunderstorms that occur during the summer are usually not enough to abolish widespread drought. While they may temporarily help localized areas, a much more expansive coverage of rain is needed to truly help with the abnormally dry conditions. Unfortunately, that doesn’t usually happen during the summer time.
The one potential wildcard is the tropics. Tropical systems have the ability to dump copious amounts of rain over a widespread area. If one of these systems impacts the eastern seaboard late this summer or fall, the drought could be wiped out in a day or two. The most likely time for tropical systems is from late August through September. As Brian Marmo has pointed out in his tropical forecast, ENSO is in the process of switching to La Nina, which is typically more favorable for an active hurricane season. With that being said, the likelihood of a tropical system impacting the Northeast is still rather low and can certainly not be counted on to allieviate drought. It is one of the many things that will need to be monitored as the summer progresses.
