Another election cycle is upon us, with voters deciding on future leaders of the United States across local and federal offices. While we often take for granted that Election Day falls in early November, unlike during the scorching days of summer or the brutal days of winter, have you ever wondered why this timing was chosen? And how does the weather not only influence the choice of November, but also impact the election outcomes overall?
The scheduling of elections in November date back to the nation's early days, when a majority of Americans worked in agriculture. The first attempt to establish a set election day occurred in 1792, when a federal law granted state legislatures a 34-day period leading up to the first Wednesday in December to choose electors for presidential elections. This effectively made the entire month of November eligible for election days.
November also conveniently suited the agrarian population of the late 18th and 19th centuries, as elections took place after the fall harvest. This provided voters more free time to travel to polling stations. Severe weather often hindered travel during the summer months, but waned in frequency during the fall months, presenting fewer obstacles for voters. Election Day itself was set on a Tuesday to allow voters ample time to travel after attending Sunday church services.
Another influence on the selection of Election Day came with the invention of the telegraph in the 1840s. With quicker communication, there was a concern that early election results in one state could sway other states, making a nationwide Election Day necessary. Congress selected the "first Tuesday after the first Monday in November", specifically to avoid falling on November 1st (All Saints' Day).
Though the world has changed considerably since the 1800s and our ability to reach polling locations is far easier and less time consuming, our Election Day remains tied to weather-driven factors. Even though most Americans no longer rely on fall harvests, early-November elections are certainly here to stay.
Despite the luxury of 21st century transportation, the weather can still influence elections, specifically through it's impact on voter turnout. Rainy days, for example, tend to reduce the number of voters who are thinking about heading to the polls.
A study published in Electoral Studies found that for every centimeter of rain, the odds of voting dropped by one percentage point, based on data from 27 studies between 1993 and 2023. Even small shifts in voting behaviors within local jurisdictions can potentially lead to notable impacts on general elections, and even sometimes alter the outcomes.
One group of researchers examined how weather influenced presidential elections from 1948 to 2000, with the study finding that inclement weather tended to favor Republican candidates. In the infamously close 2000 election, for instance, some theorized that had Florida been drier, Democratic nominee Al Gore would have carried the state and as such, won the 2000 election.
So, why does inclement weather favor Republican candidates over Democratic ones? The answer lies in the usual demographics from each party's voter base. Younger and so-called "marginal" groups, who are less likely to vote if conditions are inconvenient, tend to support Democratic candidates more frequently. When turnout amount these groups falls, Republican performances often receive a boost.
Like many other facets of life, weather seems to have an important affect on our election cycle. From the historical reasoning behind choosing Election Day to it's impact on voter turnout, weather has shaped election outcomes more than we might think. In any case, it's important to go out and vote, no matter what the weather is like. Though of course, as long as it is safe enough to do so!
