Since we began monitoring this storm several days ago, guidance is coming into better agreement for a post-Christmas storm, December 28 - 29. What storm you ask and is winter really here? Well for some, yes, it is and we will see it first hand late Monday into Tuesday in New England, parts of the Hudson Valley and even Northern NJ and PA. The overall progression of this storm will be a wintry mix at the onset with sufficiently cold air, followed by a transition to rain as temperatures warm. How long places remain wintry will determine how big of a storm this may be, and with the coldest air to the north, the further north you go... the greater the threat.
This is a potent storm we will be dealing with. It will originate over TX / NM / OK, where some places will see 1 to 2 feet of snow as the low strengthens over them. The track (similar to all storms this year) will then head northward through the Plains and Great Lakes, which is an inland track and typically a warm scenario for the Northeast. However the difference for the first time this year is a strong, cold high pressure that will build into Eastern Canada and New England leading up to the event. This set-up is referred to as cold air damming, where cold air lingers longer than usual in the low levels, while warmer air rides above it. This is how freezing rain and sleet can form, which are the two most widespread precip types we are expecting, in addition to snow as you head further north.
Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits
So what does all this mean? Well, for parts of Northern New England it may be time to break the plows out, finally. But as you head southward into portions of the Tri-State area, a wintry mess is likely on the way, with just plain rain for the majority of the Mid-Atlantic. Further details are provided in WeatherWorks Winter Risk product, including more specific timing, salting vs plowing probabilities and much more. Winter Risk is a product designed for the long range, and highlights individual winter threats during the 6 - 14 day period, with additional weeks 3 - 4 outlooks, and monthly outlooks as well. For more information, contact Kevin Hopler at kevinhopler@weatherworksinc.com
