We are over a month into the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season and so far it’s been quiet. We have had only one named system so far (Subtropical Storm Andrea) and it didn’t impact anyone as it developed harmlessly over the central Atlantic in late May. This is not unusual as we only average 2 named storms before August 1st. And again, while Andrea didn’t affect anyone, we may not be as lucky with our next named storm. A storm system is expected to develop over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this week, and then travel west. As it makes this westward trek over the very warm waters of the Gulf, it is forecast to become Tropical Storm Barry. There is a chance the storm becomes a hurricane before an expected “landfall” somewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coastline early this weekend.
As for the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season, it may take a while to really get going. Reason being, there is a lot of dry air and Saharan dust impeding development of any storms. However, this will likely be temporary, especially as we get into August.
Weatherworks Meteorologist Jim Sullivan says the current forecast for the hurricane season still looks on track. The weakening El Niño will likely “open the door” for the Atlantic to become more active in the coming weeks. This, combined with the diminishing Saharan dust will likely result in the development of “longer track” storms across the Atlantic. We’ll revisit the tropics next month and see how things are evolving as we head towards the core of the Atlantic hurricane season.