Well some good news... things are looking slightly better for the holiday weekend! Although warmer and more humid conditions will be arriving Saturday, current thinking now keeps much of the day dry for the I-95 corridor as the front stays well northwest over the Great Lakes. Some isolated showers may try to enter Maryland and central PA in the afternoon, but that activity will be spotty. Sunday will likely be the most active day in the Northeast, with showers and storms developing in the afternoon. These storms will be feeding off of ample moisture from the Gulf and although heavy downpours will be the main threat, a few severe t-storms with localized gusty winds can't be ruled out. The amount of severe weather will depend on how deeply the upper level trough digs into the Northeast (denoted by the arrow below) and how strong the southern disturbance is (circled below) along with the timing of the two:
GFS and Canadian model comparison on Sunday at 2 PM from the PSU E-Wall. The strength, amplitude and timing will be crucial for how widespread t-storm development will be.
On Labor Day Monday, trends indicate the I-95 corridor may actually be caught between disturbances, which may leave the area drier than previously expected. So at this point, we'll keep in the risk of only isolated t-storms, which may only fire up along the tail-end of the front, situated across MD and VA. Points north into RI and southeast MA may start the day out with a few showers, but for the most part end up dry. Although this forecast may still change between now and Labor Day, it's refreshing to know that the weather is trending drier, rather than wetter. Enjoy your extended weekend!
