After a warm and wet June, we have now completed the first third of meteorological summer (defined as June through August). Despite the above normal temperatures, the two hottest months of the year for the Indianapolis area are generally July and August. If you recall our 2016 Summer Forecast, which we issued in the middle of May, we predicted this year would be a hot one overall. So with one month in the books, have our expectations changed for the rest of the summer across central Indiana?
Despite some cool days to start the month, we anticipate that the remainder of July will end up being on the warm side for Indy. Overall, average highs during this time of year are right around 85 degrees. As a result, you can expect multiple days where temperatures climb up into the 90s as we move through the next few weeks. That’s not to say that every day will be hot, as even the hottest of summers will have a few cool days mixed in.
As we enter the last month of meteorological summer, all signs point to the hot weather holding on. Thus we will probably have to contend with a couple of late season heat waves (perhaps some triple digit readings as well). In fact, we wouldn’t be surprised if August featured the greatest temperatures anomalies of any month this summer. Additionally, we currently favor the warm conditions spilling into September, the first month of meteorological fall!
While temperatures are certainly trending warmer than average, precipitation patterns are generally much more difficult to predict. Often, summer rainfall totals are dependent on thunderstorm activity, which can be highly variable over a short distance. Right now we favor normal rainfall amounts for the rest of July (peak severe weather season continues thru the first half of the month), with August projected to be a bit wetter than normal. This will help protect the region from the concerns of drought, which can be magnified during dry summers.
Overall, our 2016 Summer Forecast looks like it is mainly on track, as hot readings on the thermometer are expected to be the story when things are all said and done. This shouldn’t be much of a surprise, because as we stated in May, summers where a strong El Niño transitions to La Niña often feature very warm conditions.
For the latest news concerning the warmth this summer, make sure to stay tuned!
