In a follow up to yesterday's blog, we officially have our first named storm of the 2015 season! As of late last night, the system off the Southeast Coast was deemed organized enough to be declared Subtropical Storm Ana. As noted yesterday, this was expected, as conditions in the region were favorable for development.
Model Predictions for the track of Subtropical Storm Ana over the next few days.
Ana is presently (Friday afternoon) about 170 miles southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina with sustained winds of 45 mph. With very weak atmospheric flow, Ana has been nearly stationary for much the day. However, by the weekend, the subtropical storm is expected to slowly drift onshore and bring areas of heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Carolinas. Right now, sea surface temperatures in the region of Ana are currently in the upper 70s. Not ideal, but those readings are the lower limit for tropical development. It will be interesting to see if these marginal water temperatures and the low atmospheric shear environment will be enough to allow Ana to transition into a more traditional tropical cyclone (with deep convection over the center).
As for folks in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, any impacts still look very minimal. Ana is expected to weaken and eventually lose any tropical characteristics after it makes landfall in Carolinas. Also an approaching trough by early next week will likely push the remnants of the storm off the Eastern Seaboard.
