Chillier For The Northeast into Early Next Week

January 3, 2020 // Article by: Brad Miller

The first weekend of 2020 is upon us and while temperatures will start off above normal, it looks like it will feel more like early January by Sunday.  Before we get to the forecast, let's take a look at snowfall so far this season along the I-95 corridor.  

  Snowfall So Far This Season Average Through January 3rd
Boston 11.5" 11.1"
Hartford 22.0" 10.2"
New York City 2.5" 5.5"
Philadelphia 0.1" 4.0"
Baltimore 0.3" 3.7"
Washington, DC 0.4" 3.0"


So, based on the graph above, much of New England is around or above average in the snowfall department.  New York City to Washington, DC...not so much.  In fact, some locations haven't even recorded their first inch of snow.  Unfortunately, it doesn't look like this is going to change this weekend.  Onto the forecast...

After a mainly cloudy Friday across the Northeast, another round of rain is set to arrive Friday night as low pressure moves across the area.  This will result in a wet start to Saturday.  The rain should taper off from west to east as we progress through Saturday afternoon, but some drizzle and showers will linger into the evening.  Colder air will move into the I-95 corridor Saturday night, but it will be mainly after the precipitation exits.  There could be a few snow showers across the interior locations, but any accumulation would be confined to northern New England.  Here is a look at how much rain is expected Friday night through Saturday.

18z NAM model precipitation amounts Fri night into Sunday. (Pivotal Weather)

Beyond that, Sunday looks mainly dry with just a few morning flurries possible.  We should see a fair amount of sunshine to end the weekend and temperatures will be seasonable for early January.  Here is a look at afternoon highs for Sunday.

Temperatures Sunday afternoon at 2 PM via the NAM model output. (Pivotal Weather)

We will be watching for some flurries and snow showers to develop Sunday night as a disturbance glides across the Great Lakes into upstate New York.  Right now the greatest threat to see any light accumulation of snow will be from northern New Jersey through southern New England (by light, we mean mostly a coating - 1.0", highest in Upstate NY). After this quick moving disturbance, the next system to watch will be Tuesday night into Wednesday. Right now, it appears cold air will be limited, so while there may be some snow to start over the interior, many areas will likely change to rain, with mostly rain along the I-95 corridor and points east. If your a snowlover looking for all snow, you'll have to head well inland into Upstate NY and Vermont. More to come next week...

GFS model output for late Tuesday into Wednesday. Lots of uncertainty here... (Tropical Tidbits)