Despite a fairly quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic so far, it looks as though we could have a potential storm developing over the next few days. While this tropical wave is currently poorly organized as it moves northwestward towards Hispaniola, the National Hurricane Center has given it a 60% chance of developing into tropical cyclone within the next two days, and an 80% chance in next five days. Let’s look at some of the factors working for and against this tropical wave becoming our next named tropical system.
There will be a few hindrances working against the development of this tropical wave, especially through the first part of the weekend. There is still a good amount of dry air in the vicinity, especially to the north of the system. This dry environment will certainly impede any short-term development, as tropical disturbances need ample moisture at all levels of the atmosphere to develop and strengthen. Also, there is moderate amount of wind shear just to the north of the system, which is acting to funnel the drier surrounding air mass into the center of the disturbance…even further hindering its development. In addition, any interaction this wave has with the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will hamper its attempt to become more organized. Note that aside from limiting the supply of warm water the system has access to, the mountainous terrain of these islands will act to rip apart the circulation through at least the next 24 hours.
However, as we move later into the weekend, conditions will start to turn more favorable for development once the system heads towards the Bahamas. First off, sea surface temperatures in the region are around 28°C (82.4°F), and thus plenty warm for tropical development. Not only are the temperatures at the surface warm, but the top 100 meters of the ocean column are also quite warm, which is important for the continued development as the wave overturns water from beneath the surface. Also by Saturday, the wave is expected to move in a region with less wind shear, and thus further increasing its chances of developing.
There is still a lot of uncertainty associated with this tropical disturbance, especially when it comes to its track. Right now there is a good amount of disagreement among the models in terms of the path of this storm, especially after the first 48 hours. Some models try to bring it more westward toward Florida and Cape Hatteras, while others have it turning northwest and missing the US coast completely. Of course, this is assuming the system develops in the first place, which is far from a certainty at this point. Stay tuned, as the next few days will be very important in determining if we get our next named storm this season and how it could eventually impact coastal communities.
