A somewhat cooler and comfortable remainder of Friday is in store for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with low humidity and temperatures primarily in the low-to-mid 80s (though slightly cooler farther north and a tad warmer farther south). The day likely continues to hold dry in southern portions of the area under more sun than clouds due to high pressure dominating. Though, precipitation chances increase some heading north due to an upper-level disturbance spinning overhead. Locations including northeast PA, northern NJ, Long Island, the Hudson Valley, and most of CT largely remain dry, with just an isolated shower or brief storm possible through evening. However, places closer to the disturbance in New England, including eastern CT, RI, southern NH, and especially MA, hold the greatest risk to see a few scattered showers and storms through Friday evening. Here, showers and storms this afternoon and evening can be accompanied by small hail and locally gusty winds.
Projected Radar for 6 PM this evening from the Hi-Res NAM - Courtesy Tropical Tidbits
Any showers/storms lingering in New England will taper off completely in the first few hours after sunset. Conditions then become mainly clear across the entirety of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic overnight, though some patchy fog is possible late in typically prone spots. Temperatures will drop into the mid-to-upper 50s farther north, and into the low-to-mid 60s farthest south under a calm wind.
With high pressure overhead through at least the first part of Saturday, dry conditions likely persist through the daylight hours across the region under a mix of sun and clouds. Once again, though, a brief and isolated sprinkle or shower isn't entirely ruled out, primarily in locations closest to the coast or in higher terrains. Temperatures are primarily expected in the 80s, with somewhat muggy conditions returning to southernmost locations and areas right along the coast through the day.
Take a look at the Hi-Res NAM for 2 PM Saturday below, showing that conditions are more likely than not to hold dry across the region through the day:
Courtesy Tropical Tidbits
High pressure begins to break down come Saturday night as a warm front approaches and begins passing through the region. While a brief shower or storm is not ruled out beforehand in western portions of the area, a few showers and storms turn more likely after midnight but especially into the predawn, first in areas farthest west across the Mid-Atlantic. By sunrise and into the morning hours on Sunday, showers and storms look to arrive in locations farthest east (primarily in New England), though some shower/storm activity may linger across portions of the Mid-Atlantic during the AM.
Any lingering activity in locations farthest west/across much of the Mid-Atlantic tapers off likely by midday, giving way to drier but more humid conditions for the first part of the afternoon. However, shower/storms chances increase here again in the mid-to-late afternoon and through the evening as a cold front begins its trek through the region. This may also result in a few stronger storms that could be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Meanwhile, eastern portions of New England may not see much of a "dry break" after initial morning showers/storms, with intermittent activity potentially persisting through much of Sunday.
Projeted radar for 2 PM Sunday via the GFS. Notice the area of precipitation over MA from the morning warm front that passed through the region, and the additional precipitation arriving from the north and west as a cold front approachees and then treks through the region Courtesy Tropical Tidbits
Take a look below at the anticipated afternoon highs on Sunday from the NAM. As mentioned earlier, humid and more uncomfortable conditions also return, as dew points climb through the 60s and potentially even into the low 70s.
Courtesy of Pivotal Weather
Conditions for Monday look a bit questionable, and are highly dependent on how quickly the cold front trekks through and clears the area. Additionally, it may also "stall" across the area (though favoring locations farthest south), which could increase the risk for or prolong potential areas of precipitation. At this point, intermittent showers and storms throughout the day on Monday look most likely across the Mid-Atlantic (again, southern areas having the relatively highest chance to see precipitation). New England, meanwhile, we could still see a few showers or storms, but are leaning overall drier than not at this point. High temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s are expected across the region.
Check back here on Monday for an update on next week's weather. Have a great weekend everyone and stay safe!
