A Windy Weekend For The Northeast...

March 12, 2021 // Article by: Jen D’Iorio

Scattered showers that affected portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic last night and earlier this morning have now exited off the coast as a weak cold front passed through the region. In the wake of this frontal passage, expect dry conditions for the remainder of our Friday as sunshine returns to the area. It will continue to be mild with high temperatures in most places expected to top off in the 60s. Winds also turn increasing breezy through the afternoon, with gusts of 20 - 30 mph expected by evening.

An upper-level disturbance and an associated arctic front then passes through the region Friday night, sparking the potential for flurries or even a couple of snow showers. Most of the activity should remain confined to VT, NH, ME, and upstate NY, though some activity could make it down into MA, with flurries not ruled out as as far down as northeast PA and northern portions of the Hudson Valley, NJ, CT, and RI. It also becomes downright windy Friday night, towards and after midnight following the frontal passage.  Gusts of 30 - 40 mph (even up to 45 - 50 mph in New England) are expected. Overnight temperatures will also be noticeably colder, with lows bottoming out in the mid-to-upper 20s to low 30s (though Southern NJ, DE, and most of MD have a decent chance to see low temps above freezing, in the mid-to-upper 30s).

High pressure in place on Saturday will lend to a dry start to the weekend under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Early wind gusts of 30 - 35 mph (especially in New England) gradually relax through the day, leading to a less breezy afternoon. It will definitely feel cooler though, especially farther north in New England, with high temps from the upper 30s to mid 40s expected. Farther south towards Baltimore and DC, high temps could still reach the low-to-mid 50s. Here's a projected outlook of temperatures from the GFS for 5 PM on Saturday:

Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

Sunday then looks to remains on the drier side as well due to high pressure dominating the Northeast.  However, an additional upper-level disturbance and cold front passing through renews the risk for some isolated activity, primarily Sunday afternoon. When compared with Friday, the risk to see a rain/snow shower in Southern New England and into the Northern Mid-Atlantic is slightly greater (elsewhere likely remains completely dry). Even so, any spotty showers shouldn't cause too much of an issue, especially if they occur during the daylight hours when the sun is heating the surface. Take a look at the simulated radar reflectivity/precipitation for 3 PM Sunday from the RGEM weather model below:

Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

The passage of this upper-level disturbance and cold front marks the return of windy conditions across the entriety of the region, with gusts likely reaching 30 - 40 mph again Sunday afternoon. High temperatures will be similar to Saturday, though likely just a touch warmer, reaching the low-to-mid 40s in the northern half of the area, and the low-to-mid 50s in the southern half of the area.

Forecast Temperatures for 1 PM Sunday by the GFS model - Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

Monday is then noticeably cooler across the region with slightly breezy conditions persisting. High temps only maxing out in the 30s farther north, and in the low-to-mid 40s farther south. Conditions likely remain dry, though areas farther south in south-central PA and MD have the risk to see some wintry precipitation later on as a system approaches from the southwest. This could trickle north and east into other regions on Tuesday, however, the system could remain suppressed to the south and "miss" the region, or even remain on the drier side, keeping wintry precipitation risks low at the moment. Check back on Monday for an update.  Have a great weekend !!

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