Dry and quiet conditions are in place for this Friday afternoon as the sun gradually fades behind increasing cloud cover, first in the Mid-Atlantic, then eventually into New England. Our next disturbance is then on track to arrive later today and into this evenng, again, first in the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated early afternoon sprinkles/showers are not ruled in Maryland and northern Virginia before showers and even some storms turn more widespread in these areas later this afternoon and into this evening. And while an isolated shower is possible later today for eastern Pennsylvania, Delaware, and southern New Jersey, the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast should hold dry through sunset. High temperatures today will be in the low-to-mid 60s. Check out the simulated radar for 5 PM Friday from the HRRR model below:
Courtesy Tropical Tidbits
Periods of moderate to even briefly heavy rain in MD and N. VA gradually exit towards and just after Midnight as widespread activity continues its very slow trek farther east. Scattered showers arriving shortly after sunset in eastern PA, southern NJ, and DE turn more widspread and potentially heavy into the first part of Friday night. Given the slow moving nature of potential downpours and pockets of steadier rainfall in these locations tonight, localized areas of flooding are possible. While Delaware looks to escape the steadiest rain, eastern PA and southern NJ look to still see some lingering activity towards sunrise. The rest of NJ and the New York City metro also look to get in on the action after Midnight and through sunrise Saturday, first towards the PA border and last in NYC. Friday night low temperatures across the region are forecast to be in the low-to-mid 40s. Here's a projected outlook at precipitation amounts through 8 AM Saturday morning:
Courtesy Pivotal Weather
This system continues to linger overhead for Saturday as high temperatures reach the low to mid 50s farther north to mid-60s farthest south. Periods of showers look to hang around for much of Saturday in northern/central NJ, NYC, and the Hudson Valley. After a dry break from the previous night's activity in MD, N.VA, DE, and potentially eastern PA and southern NJ, a returning morning shower/sprinkle may then be followed by isolated gusty showers or even storms in the afternoon due to the backside of the disturbance swinging through the area. Meanwhile, the rest of New England, specifically CT, RI, MA, and much of Long Island, look more dry than not for Saturday, as most activity holds to the south and west. However, a few showers remain possible, primarily in the afternoon and evening. We then dry out completely across the region through the first hours of Saturday night as clouds gradually decrease.
Simulated radar for 3PM Saturday from the Hi-Res NAM model. Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.
Sunday starts off dry along with some sun before clouds quickly increase ahead of our next system as temperatures climb into the low-to-mid 60s. Rain showers first become possible in MD, N.VA, and DE during the late morning and afternoon with activity gradually spreading to the north and east during the overnight hours. While areas farthest south may be dry for a good portion of the overnight hours (perhaps just a few on-and-off showers), periods of rain become likely for the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England. However, this system has been trendning faster and most locations along the I-95 corridor (especially from NYC to Washington, DC), should see the weather improve Monday morning.
Have a great weekend everyone!
