Earlier this week, the Northeast had a potent cold front push through the area with heavy rain and wind gusts reaching 45 - 55 mph, especially across southern New England. Well, this weekend looks like a "rinse and repeat" situation as a similar storm system will trek through the area on Saturday. Once again we expect a swath of rain to develop ahead of a cold front with gusty south to southwest winds ahead of it.
NAM model loop from 7 AM - 7 PM Saturday. Notice the tightly packed isobars (thin black lines) ahead of the rain. This indicates a strong pressure gradient and gusty winds. Via Tropical Tidbits.
As far as timing, expect rain to push through MD, eastern PA, the Hudson Valley, and much of NJ starting early to mid-morning through midday. Meanwhile, farther northeast into southern New England, expect the wet weather from late morning into sunset. A few rain showers may linger behind the initial shot of rainfall, with most places likely seeing 0.25 - 0.50" altogether.
Along and ahead of the front it will be quite mild tomorrow, with many reaching 55 - 60 degrees. However, this is also where we expect the strongest wind gusts. While this system is a bit weaker than Wednesday's system (11/30/22), it will still pack quite a punch. Gusts will reach 35 mph for much of the Mid-Atlantic into NJ, but will kick up more in southern New England where 40 - 45 mph gusts are expected (likely causing some downed branches and possibly an isolated power outage or two). Behind the front, it will remain blustery with chillier temperatures and a few lake effect flurries and snow showers into the higher elevations.
While Sunday and Monday look cooler and quieter with high pressure in control, another mostly rain event will develop on Tuesday into Wednesday. Beyond that is when things start to get interesting winter weather wise. Late next week into the following week, a blocking pattern will set up over Greenland (or a -NAO read more about it here). At the same time, high pressure ridging will push into Alaska, with both patterns working to push colder air into the U.S.
Upcoming pattern change late next week into mid-December. Notice the Greenland Block and Pacific Ridging.
With an active subtropical jet stream pushing moisture across the southern U.S., late next week into mid and late December will be more conducive for wintry threats. While some forecast models are already catching on to the idea and showing some winter storms developing, others are not quite there. Personally, I'd like to see the Pacific Ridge a bit farther east into British Columbia to really lock in the cold air, but hey, this is a good start and promising if you like winter weather. More to come next week! If you want more long range information, consider Winter Risk...we talk all about pattern changes and potential storms there, updated twice a week. Be sure to check it out.
