Why Forecast the Weather?

March 31, 2016 // Article by: Mike Mihalik

Ever since humans evolved, I’m sure we were awestruck by the power of the weather and curious how such phenomena as rain, snow, wind, clouds, and lightning could exist. And why shouldn’t we be interested, weather can destroy properties and landscapes, affects our daily lives, and can even kill. In ancient times, we tried to explain it with gods such as Zeus, Jupiter, Thor, and Huracán, but when offerings to said gods didn’t change the weather, we were left with more questions.

As science progressed, we began experimenting with the weather. We recorded observations of temperature and pressure and associated weather conditions. Think about it, Benjamin Franklin didn’t tie a key to a kite just for fun, he was striving to understand what lightning is and to prove his hypothesis that it was electrical in nature. Eventually, scientists derived complex equations to describe atmospheric motions and composition, using physics, chemistry, and mathematics. These formulas were then fed into supercomputers, which to this day run billions of calculations to attempt to predict if weather systems will develop, where they will go, and if they will strengthen or weaken.

In essence, scientists were and still are trying to predict the future and unless you’re Marty McFly with a time machine and an almanac from the future, this is pretty hard to do. But we as meteorologists continue to interpret these computer models and strive to make perfect forecasts. In the process, we take the criticism, the angry rants, the off-color comments for forecasts gone wrong. We beat ourselves up and lose sleep about the busted predictions, but just like Rocky Balboa, we get back up, compose ourselves and learn from our mistakes.

Why do meteorologists continue to persevere? Because we know that if the forecast is right, we can save property, help prevent accidents, and save lives. Otherwise, we’re no better than the caveman or ancient Greek who stood in awe as weather ravaged his/her civilization.

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